Dream Team Couch – 2008 AFL Dream Team Blog

At the start of the Dream Team year, so many questions cross ones mind about choosing the best 30 players possible. With a salary cap, we cant pick all our dream players, there is a tight budget when selecting, so how do we know which cheaper players to choose who will greatly improve throughout the year and end up as a great buy. Well its simple, the Third Year Rule.

The third year rule was discovered by an Englishman many ages ago. The Englishman, or as he was more commonly known as ‘Pom’ was searching for the ultimate formula for AFL Dream Team success. His quest to find the formula for success was a long and tiresome one, which constantly fell short. At times the Pom felt as though his quest for the ultimate dream team formula was nearly as pointless as putting Mark Nicoski as captain. When Pom thought all hope was lost, he came across an interesting statistic between a few players which he found on fanfooty. As he searched other players he found they also encompassed the same trait, the Pom got excited, he searched more and more to find that nearly every player had this same statistical aspect as the next. Pom had found it, he had found the secret formula to dream team success, and Pom’s Third Year Rule was born.

In its basic principle, the third year rule means that a football player in their third year of AFL will provide astounding DT scores in comparison to the previous two years. The third year is seen as the year in which the players begin their DT success, this is sensational as they are normally reasonably cheap due to the two years before them of average scores. I believe out of the entire AFL competition, 95% of players sufficiently improve their DT scores in their third year of footy. Players who have held this truly include,

Chris Judd- The superstar averaged 64 in his first year, 75 in his second and 85 in his third. His price would have been floating under the 300k mark before his third year and in his third year would have finished around 360k. Not to mention he also won a little award in his third year called the Brownlow Medal, apparently its a big deal in the footballing world.

Jimmy Bartel- Another brownlow medalist who kick started their career by stunning third year. His first year he averaged 49, second he averaged 50 and in that premium third year averaged 93!

Steve Johnson- averaged 61 in his first year, dropped to 58 in the second but the third year rule prevailed once more with him averaging 74.

Nick Malceski- The sydney young gun averaged a measly 24 from 5 games in his first year, averaged a 59 out of 17 games in his second and took it to the next level in his third year with an average of 87 from 23 games.

Brock Mclean- averaged 41 in his first, 64 in the second and what do you know a whopping 92 in the third year of his AFL career.

Jed Adcock- 33 in his first, 55 in the second year and a nice 81 in the third.

Mark Blake- Thats right even the big dud Blakey applies to the rule with a 26, 36 and then 52.

Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin- The superstar had an average of 51 in his first year, 57 in his second and 80 in his third. He will be able to thank his third year efforts when he is accepting one of his 56 future coleman medals.

Jordan Lewis- 61 not bad, 75 getting warmer, third year 95 that’s the spot!

Travis Cloke- Pulls an average of 20 in his first, follows with a 56 and then third year hits its with 78.

Chris Knights- first 20, second 50, third what do you know plucks an average of  88 out there.

Marc Murphy- averages 75 in his first year, deja vu in his second year with another ave of 75 and then his third year BANG average of 100 so far this year.

Garrick Ibbotson- decides not to play in his first year, averages a measly 37 and then this year hello 72.

If you go back of the past years of AFL you will notice the trend in the great rise of DT scores and games played in the third year, but what does this mean for the future? well it means maybe you should think of some of these guys heading into their third years next year.

Joel Selwood- This future legend form geelong had a stunning debut averaging 86 last year, his form has dropped slightly so far averaging 78 which means his price has dropped a tad as well. Come round 1 next year have him in your side he will be an absolute DT king next year, and his price should be alright as well.

Bryce Gibbs- Averaged 58 last year, already brought that up to 80 this year. Expect him to follow in the footsteps of marc murphy and average around 100 next year, this number 1 draft pick will not disappoint.

Travis Boak- Averaged 63 last year and averaging 74 this year, he will be a gun for sure, port could do with an up and coming midfield star and this is the bloke to deliver.

Keep your eye open for next season on those drafted in the 2006 draft to follow the legendary Pom’s Third Year Rule

Thank you.

POMS THIRD YEAR RULE PROUDLY SPONSORED BY